Are You Not Being Entertained? The Drop of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed 10 fewer goals from open-play situations compared to at this stage last season.

A major talking point of the EPL season so far is the drop of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals increasingly from set-plays instead.

Comparing goal sources to the first 11 games last season, we note 39 fewer goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 less overall.

Considering the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing show a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.

And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more shots produced from them outside of penalties, demonstrating the efficiency teams are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Tell an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals scored in the first 110 fixtures to date works out at 2.74 scores per game, if this persists for the whole season might be the lowest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

But just 196 goals scored in open-play averages out 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the lowest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).

2009-10 also marks the only Premier League season to see scoring more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79).

What Clubs Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the most significant decline, scoring a mere four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's fall in open-play scoring is largely a London thing, with five of the city's seven teams recording at least five less scores from open-play than the previous year.

Honestly, this is mainly because them netting many scores at the beginning of last season as opposed to them really struggling to find the net in open-play the current term.

At the same time Manchester City have seen the largest rise, with all but one of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have recorded three extra scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in matchday 11 en route to the drop the previous campaign.

Regarding goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the most significant jump, with each team compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've netted in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.

United have netted double the number scores from set-plays as they achieved in the 11 games last season before the manager took over, while Sunderland once more prove more effective at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.

City appear not to have received the message about netting additional goals from set-pieces, because they've recorded a reduction of three than last season, like Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this season's primary examples by scoring fewer scores from open-play and additional from set-plays, while Manchester City stand as the sole team to defy the pattern up to now by doing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to observe if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and begin scoring additional scores in open play as well.

Anna Davila
Anna Davila

Elena is a seasoned mountaineer and outdoor writer with over 15 years of experience scaling peaks across Europe and Asia.