Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The average count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh official figures. But, security specialists have advised that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that last month the least figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

But, security experts cautioned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and think: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the will to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it may hide days when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.