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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.