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At first, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer should Putin continued blocking peace negotiations, he ultimately enacted substantial penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was drafted by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or European input, the former president has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal in reality weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will appease the ruler. However, Russia's invasion is not simply about occupying a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear desire to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in status the already separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would require Ukraine to abandon all of this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its military have been unable to capture in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically undermined.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Putin a open route to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to restart the war.

Military Reductions

Then, in a step that would make renewed conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their current large number soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the initiative sets no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any radical ideology and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "establish in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should the international community have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "immediate unified military response" should the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the details range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning forces on the nation's land, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from rebuilding his reduced forces, restocking, and attacking again.

World Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against additional hostilities – the success of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not